Weather Forecasts
Model Bootstrap Complete. All services are now configured for optimal operation.
Forecast Quality Improvements
Forecasts now use optimized smoothing algorithms to eliminate "finger" patterns. Both Short-Term (0-48 hours) and Medium-Term (0-7 days) forecasts are available.
Short-Term (0-48h) Forecasting Status
- Model:
- GradientBoosting-ShortTermTrained & Ready
- Last Trained:
- 11 Aug 2026 00:03
- Status:
- Short-Term Forecast at 02:00 UTC
- Last Generated:
- 03:00:00
- Next Generation:
- 03:20 (in 18 min)
- Total Generated:
- 1210 runs
Weather Pattern
Now
Current Pattern
2 min ago
Warm Dry Transitional (→ Zonal) Falling
Temp (48h)
23.1°C
Pressure (48h)
1020.4 hPa
Humidity (48h)
59%
P. Trend (48h)
-0.07 hPa/h
Average Duration
5.6 d
Hist. Days
118 d
Forecast
Forecast Pattern (0–48 h)
Mild Humid Transitional (Mixed) Stable
Temp (fcst)
16.0°C
Pressure (fcst)
1019.0 hPa
Humidity (fcst)
84%
P. Trend (fcst)
-0.03 hPa/h
Average Duration
5.6 d
Hist. Days
118 d
Generate Short-Term Forecast
Uses Gradient Boosting model
Short-Term Forecast Run
- Model:
- GradientBoosting-ShortTerm v1.0.0
- Run Time:
- 14/08/2026 03:00:00
- Ensemble Members: (ℹ)
- 13 members
Diversity from perturbation (3%) - Forecast Horizon:
- 48 hours (2.0 days)
- Number of Forecasts:
- 637
Forecast Accuracy Metrics
| Variable | MAE | RMSE | Bias (MBE) | Correlation | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DewPoint | 2.22 | 2.82 | -1.94 | 0.383 | 730 |
| Humidity | 20.67 | 24.38 | -12.98 | 0.233 | 730 |
| Precipitation | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 730 |
| PrecipitationProbability | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.000 | 730 |
| PrecipitationType | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 731 |
| Pressure | 2.80 | 3.35 | 0.50 | 0.004 | 730 |
| Probability10mm | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 412 |
| Probability1mm | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 412 |
| Probability5mm | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 412 |
| SolarRadiation | 54.06 | 85.10 | 26.99 | 0.743 | 731 |
| Temperature | 5.20 | 5.79 | 0.88 | 0.221 | 730 |
| UV | 0.43 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 0.753 | 731 |
| WindDirection | 86.21 | 105.17 | -18.34 | 0.000 | 731 |
| WindGust | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 0.164 | 730 |
| WindSpeed | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.15 | -0.070 | 730 |
Daily Precipitation Totals
=== GradientBoosting-ShortTerm - Precipitation Summary === Forecast Period: 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-16 (3 days) Total Precipitation: 0.3 mm Days with rain (>0.1mm): 2/3 Wettest day: 2026-08-15 (0.2 mm) Average per day: 0.1 mm Daily Breakdown: 2026-08-14: 0.1 mm (0 intervals, max 0.0 mm/interval, probability 0%) 2026-08-15: 0.2 mm (0 intervals, max 0.0 mm/interval, probability 0%) 2026-08-16: Dry (probability 0%)
Ensemble Visualization Mode
Choose how to display ensemble forecast dataMember Display Options
Choose which ensemble members to displayEnsemble Members View
Showing all ensemble members + control run:
- Thick black line: Control run (unperturbed baseline)
- Thin colored lines: Perturbed members (showing uncertainty)
- Bold colored line: Ensemble mean (average of perturbed members only)
- Shaded area: 95% (±1.96σ) confidence interval
Temperature & Dew Point Forecast
Humidity Forecast
Pressure Forecast
Wind Speed & Direction Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
Atmospheric Stability Outlook
Lifted Index (LI): ISA surface-based parcel lift. Thresholds configurable in Settings. Likelihood modulated by humidity and pressure trend — high humidity or falling pressure raises confidence. Positive LI = stable (no alert).
Moisture Instability (MI): Active when H > 70% and LI < -3°C (advisory threshold). Severity from LI depth and humidity margin via NSWWS matrix.
Rapid Pressure Fall (RPF): Advisory −1 hPa/hr · Watch −2 hPa/hr · Warning −4 hPa/hr. Observed values use VeryHigh likelihood; forecast values use ensemble spread.
2-Day Forecast Details
| Forecast Time | Lead Time | Temperature (°C) | Humidity (%) | Pressure (hPa) | Wind Speed (mph) | Wind Dir (°) | Hourly Precip (mm) | Precip Prob (%) | P(>1mm) (%) | P(>5mm) (%) | P(>10mm) (%) | Precip Type |
|---|